Cross-border Warning: Don't Just Focus on Tax Refunds! High Tariffs May Return in July, Bringing Triple Pressure to Cross-border Sellers. It's Too Late If You Don't Plan Now.
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Cross-border alert: Don't just focus on tax rebates! High tariffs may return in July, bringing triple pressure to cross-border sellers. It's too late if you don't plan now.
Recently, US tariff policies have undergone a dual change: a tariff rebate policy of 1.13 trillion RMB (approximately 166 billion USD) officially took effect on April 20th, while Section 301 high tariffs may be restarted in July.
Source: Online media
This seemingly contradictory "one rebate, one increase" reflects a clear shift in US trade strategy.
For cross-border sellers deeply involved in the US market, understanding the essence of the policy, calculating costs accurately, and planning in advance are more important than chasing short-term rebate benefits.
01, From Tax Rebates to Tariff Restart: A Clear Policy Timeline
2025
The Trump administration, based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), bypassed Congress to impose tariffs on goods exported globally to the US. The tax rates on some Chinese goods once surged to 54%, putting immense cost pressure on foreign trade and cross-border sellers.
Source: Online media
February 20, 2026
The US Supreme Court made a final ruling with a 6:3 vote, determining that this tariff was an overreach of authority, unconstitutional, and void from the beginning. On March 4, the court further clarified that customs must refund the full amount of the relevant tariffs collected from early 2025 to February 2026, and pay corresponding interest.
Image source: Online media
April 14, 2026
The US Customs officially announced that on April 20, the CAPE electronic tax rebate system will be launched, initiating the largest tax refund in history – $166 billion, covering 330,000 US importers and over 53 million customs declaration records.
Image source: Online media
April 14, 2026
US Treasury Secretary Yellen publicly stated: "We suffered a Supreme Court defeat on our tariff policy, but we will initiate or conduct a Section 301 investigation, so tariffs may be restored to previous levels by early July."
Source: Online media
This means that although the US IEEPA tariffs have expired, it is highly likely that the original high tariff levels will be restored in early July using Section 301, seamlessly connecting with the current temporary tariffs under Section 122, leaving no tariff gap.
Source: Online media
July 24, 2026
The current execution of Clause 122, a 10% temporary tariff, officially expires, and the 301 long-term tariffs may take over completely, bringing the high-pressure trade situation between the U.S. and China back to the forefront.
02, Detailed explanation of the 1.13 trillion tax refund policy
Policy essence: It is not the U.S. government actively giving benefits; it is actually judicial correction and mandatory refund of illegal taxes and fees.
Scope of application: Only applicable to tariffs and interest imposed under Chapter 99 based on IEEPA from early 2025 to February 2026; does not include 301 tariffs on China, 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, or anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
Source: Online media
Refund subject: Limited to U.S. registered importers (IOR), refunds can only be deposited into U.S. domestic ACH bank accounts linked to the ACE system;
Document requirements: ACE system customs declaration status must be 'Accepted', with HTS Chapter 99 clause (IEEPA exclusive identifier);
Refund batches: Documents within 80 days of non-settlement and settlement will be prioritized for review, with funds available in 60–90 days; documents settled over 80 days or complex disputed documents will require manual review, expected to gradually refund over 2–4 years.
Source: Online media
How Chinese sellers benefit: Chinese companies with U.S. subsidiaries, if registered as IOR and have paid taxes, can self-check and apply according to the above conditions; ordinary cross-border sellers can indirectly enjoy dividends by connecting with U.S. importers, standardizing trade terms, and agreeing on tax refund rights distribution.
Zhongnan Whale International focuses on U.S. IOR compliance customs clearance, accurate HS code classification, and full-process connection for tax refund rights, helping you securely capture the 166 billion tax refund dividends, zero risk, high efficiency, and cross-border compliance in one step! For shipping contact Zhongnan Whale International Kayl: 15876779555 (WeChat/phone same number) 👇
03, 301 tariff restart: Long-term high tariffs have become a foregone conclusion
Section 301 is the common name for Section 301 of the U.S. "Trade Act of 1974." Its core is to authorize the U.S. Trade Representative to initiate investigations into "unreasonable or discriminatory trade practices" of other countries and implement unilateral sanctions. It has a solid legal basis and little room for judicial challenge within the United States.
After the IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal, the U.S. quickly turned to the more legally solid Section 301, essentially "legalizing and long-termizing" high tariffs.
Section 301 tariffs have been in effect since President Trump's first term in 2018, and President Biden's administration has continued to escalate them in 2024. Currently, over $200 billion worth of Chinese goods are included in the list, with most products subject to tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 25%, and some categories as high as 100%.
The "restart" mentioned by Besent this time is the initiation of a new round of broader Section 301 investigations on top of the existing 301 tariff restrictions.
In early March, the U.S. successively launched Section 301 investigations against multiple economies, including China, citing "manufacturing overcapacity" and "failure to prohibit imports of forced labor products." These are expected to enter the hearing stage in early May and may restart in early July.
The scope of this investigation covers China's advantageous export categories such as electronics, home appliances, automobiles, machinery, ships, and steel, with a broader scope and stricter regulation.
More critically, the $800 duty-free limit has been canceled for goods listed under Section 301. Direct mail small packages will face multiple charges including basic tariffs, Section 301 tariffs, and provisional tariffs. The comprehensive tariff may exceed the previous average level of 25%, significantly weakening the cost advantage of Chinese goods.
Section 301 tariffs are coming, and direct mail costs are soaring! Zhongnan Jinghang International is strategically focused on the North American market, with 6 overseas warehouses in the U.S. covering Canada, Mexico, and Latin American markets. We help you stock up in advance, lock in costs, and reduce comprehensive tariffs by over 10%+, ensuring timely delivery and stable profits! For shipping inquiries, contact Zhongnan Jinghang International Kayl: 15876779555 (WeChat/Phone same number) 👇
04. Tax rebates cannot stop tariff increases, sellers are facing triple pressure
In the short term, U.S. importers have seen their cash flow supplemented, bargaining pressure has eased, some shelved orders have restarted, and categories like home appliances and electronics have experienced a phased recovery.
However, it is expected that after the Section 301 investigation is passed in July, the comprehensive tariff rate will likely return to a high level, directly compressing the profit margins of low-margin products.
The accompanying rise in hidden costs: The 301 investigation strengthens supply chain traceability and labor compliance reviews, requiring companies to invest more human and material resources to improve documentation, or face the risk of increased tariffs or import bans.
Logistics and inventory stocking are also in a dilemma: Concentrated stocking will drive up ocean freight prices and exacerbate cabin shortages. Excessive stocking may face the risk of further tariff increases and inventory depreciation, while insufficient stocking can lead to order loss and profit damage.
Under this trend, cross-border sellers cannot just focus on short-term benefits, but should pay more attention to long-term trends.
With dual guarantees of compliance and logistics, Zhongnan Whale Voyage International provides supply chain traceability document organization, labor compliance audits, US overseas warehouse one-stop fulfillment, overseas warehouse stocking, and one-stop multi-market logistics services, with one-on-one customer service escorting you throughout the process! Helping you shift from chasing benefits to strong strategic layout! For shipping, please contact Zhongnan Whale Voyage International Kayl: 15876779555 (WeChat/phone same number) 👇
05. The key to stabilizing business: Shifting from chasing benefits to strong strategic layout
Facing the situation of tax rebates and tariffs coexisting, experienced sellers have long abandoned waiting and watching, and turned to a more stable long-term strategic layout.
1. Conduct self-compliance checks:
Verify the 301 list and corresponding tax rates through HS codes, organize historical customs declarations and tax payment certificates to avoid additional losses due to misclassification or missing documents; at the same time, promote supply chain compliance, prepare traceability and labor-related documents, and proactively avoid customs clearance risks.
Image source: Online media
2. Accelerate the adjustment of logistics models:
Gradually reduce the proportion of direct mail small packages, transfer core cargo volume to US overseas warehouses, stock in advance to lock in costs, improve delivery timeliness, and reduce the impact of tariff fluctuations. Enterprises with conditions can use compliant IOR customs declaration to more reliably connect with tax rebate benefits.
3. Moderately diversify markets:
Reduce reliance on a single US market; optimize product structure, eliminate low-profit, high-tariff categories, focus on high-value-added, high-profit products, and use product competitiveness to offset tariff pressure.
06. Long-term trend: The bonus period is over, compliance and supply chain will determine the winner
The restart of Section 301 tariffs means the era of "low tariffs, low costs" for cross-border e-commerce has officially ended, and the industry has entered a reshuffling phase with compliance as the bottom line and supply chain as the core.
Tax rebates are only a short-term policy; high tariffs are the future norm. The overall direction of the US "de-risking" from China will not change, and the scope and rates of Section 301 investigations may continue to increase.
In the next 1-2 years, sellers with low compliance, low gross profit margins, and excessive reliance on direct mail will gradually be eliminated from the market. Sellers who proactively plan for compliance, overseas warehouses, multi-market expansion, and product upgrades will occupy a more stable survival space.
For cross-border sellers, instead of dwelling on how much short-term profit tax rebates can bring, it is better to focus on optimizing structure and operating steadily. During periods of policy volatility, stability and long-term survival are more important than running fast temporarily.
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